Otago’s population centre is rapidly moving inland. Within 15 years, the population of Inland Otago, encompassing the golden triangle of Queenstown, Wānaka, and Cromwell, could exceed Dunedin’s population.
Just twenty years ago this kind of claim would have seemed preposterous – with Inland Otago (Queenstown Lakes and Central Otago) having less than one third of Dunedin’s population. In 2004, Inland Otago had a combined population of 37,950, against Dunedin’s population of 121,600. However, fast forward to 2024 and the Inland Otago block now has 78,900 residents, compared to 136,000 in Dunedin.
Average annual population growth across Queenstown Lakes and Central Otago has averaged 4.6%pa across the past decade, compared to 0.9%pa in Dunedin. Growth across New Zealand averaged 1.7%pa.
If historical growth rates continue, then Inland Otago will have a larger population than Dunedin by 2039.
Take note. Statistics New Zealand demographic projections in Queenstown Lakes and Central Otago consistently underestimate the scale of demand to live in Otago’s beautiful, mountainous interior. Public services and infrastructure investment need to catch-up.
Dunedin may be New Zealand’s oldest city, and boast some of the lower South’s finest institutions, but that does not mean by default public investment should follow legacy-based assumptions across the lower South.
Inland Otago will be the economic force of the lower South Island within half a generation, and from an NZ Inc perspective there are opportunities to invest in world leading infrastructure to ensure that this growth is higher productivity than the status quo.