Don't let the stonking GDP headline of 1.7% production growth in just three months mislead you. Growth was strong in the June quarter, compared to March, only because March was nothing to write home about. The March quarter was a write-off - as we all sat spluttering at home with Omicron.
There are no shortages of people wanting to go on the record as to when property prices will rise again. But there is a certain curiosity about their logic. What if housing doesn't remain a one-way bet on even shitty houses in mediocre spots?
You might have been confused to see several banks reduce fixed mortgage rates last week, while at the same time columnists are saying the Reserve Bank will lift the official cash rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
For me Budget 2022 is not so much about whether the spending itself adds to inflation or not, it’s more a question of delivery. My gut tells me it would be better to focus on doing a few changes well, rather than biting off more than you can chew.
Inflationary expectations are becoming unhinged, with businesses’ expectations of inflation two years out running at their highest level in more than 30 years (since 1991)!
The sharp increase in non-tradeables inflation worries me because it is the canary in the coal mine for the inflationary mindset that is becoming engrained in business decision-making.
It was a pleasure to record a podcast with Andy Thompson last week. In a wide-ranging discussion we focused on inflation and the potential implications for interest rates within New Zealand.
The Reserve Bank decides on Wednesday what it wants to do to interest rates. This means that economists are beginning to dust their crystal balls, brush off the tarot cards, and meet up to argue over craft beers in back alleys as to what the Bank will do.
For all the recent talk of inflation, I have been disappointed that the debate largely reduced into conjecture […]
2021 was a year of of upside surprises. Although I remain optimistic about the outlook for 2022, there is also reason to be cautious. The Omicron outbreak has provided a reminder that Covid can still throw spanners in the works.
It was reassuring to see export data show New Zealand's exports rose in August, but shipping challenges could pose a $10 billion opportunity cost for exporters.
Megatrends are long-term overarching global and domestic forces that have significant implications for business, economy, society, and the personal lives of people. These forces have the potential to alter the types of goods and services New Zealand has a comparative advantage in trading, and who we trade with.