
Labour market cooling evident
If further labour market weakness is coupled with any significant downward surprises in inflation or economic performance then the Reserve Bank could begin to consider initiating OCR cuts earlier than anticipated.
If further labour market weakness is coupled with any significant downward surprises in inflation or economic performance then the Reserve Bank could begin to consider initiating OCR cuts earlier than anticipated.
Queenstown-Lakes’ labour market continues to have the fastest employment growth in the country. Over the past 12 months, there has been an 11% increase in employment within the District, backed up by a surge in working age people moving into the local area.
Often in New Zealand we limit our discussions of competition for labour to domestic and transtasman issues, but this is a global challenge folks! What's the data show and what can be done about it?
In New Zealand, we typically see remote work as an overarching benefit for our regions because of the employment opportunities it offers, but in the US there are growing concerns that remote work could spark a regional banking crisis.
In the past 6 months, New Zealand's working age population increased by an extraordinary 59,100 people. This data highlights that the current migration boom is being fueled by people who are here to work!
Employment expanded by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted) in April! That is rapid growth for the month - annualised that would equate to more than 7% of additional filled jobs across a 12 month period.
There has been a huge lift in youth and female employment over the past year, which has massively eased employment shortages. The challenge moving ahead will be on retention, particularly in an environment where wage increases are unlikely to be as rapid as we have experienced recently due to signs that profit margins are becoming squeezed.
This report puts the spotlight on worker sentiment and employment conditions in Queenstown-Lakes compared to New Zealand. The data shows that workers in Queenstown-Lakes consistently reported higher levels of workplace satisfaction and better employment conditions than the New Zealand average.
Queenstown - they risk damaging the entire reputation of the New Zealand tourism sector. If people go home not having been able to wine, dine, and play how and when they want, then people won't wax lyrical about New Zealand to their friends and family when they return home.
The borders have reopened and visitors are returning to Queenstown-Lakes. The additional demand is a lifeline for tourism businesses starved of revenue over the past couple of years. However, finding workers to service this demand remains an acute challenge.
I am spreading my wings across the ditch in Sydney this week. It’s interesting to be on the ground in another country where there is a sense of déjà vu against some of the trends we are also seeing in New Zealand.
Unemployment is at a record low. Do I trust the precise number - hell no, do I trust the general tenor of what the unemployment result is pointing towards - heck yes.